Mark Mulligan

This report presents the key figures, trends, and drivers of MIDiA’s video streaming subscription forecast model. The revenue figures presented in this report are in billions of US dollars unless otherwise stated. An Excel file posted alongside this report provides complete region and country-level data, as well as a detailed methodology statement.

MIDiA analysts dive into our 2023 predictions, and why we believe it will be the ' pivot point '. Watch the webinareither on YouTube or LinkedIn ....

In this report, MIDiA Research analysts present their predictions for what will be the big trends in digital media and tech across music, video, games, marketing, audio and cultural trends in 2023 and beyond. Themes for 2023: Cost-of-living crunch: Entertainment spending will weaken, but some formats will fare better than others Perceived value will be king: As economic conditions worsen, consumers will seek out better value for money, not just ways to reduce spend The end of disruption: Following two decades of disruption, consumer tech is entering a ‘holding’ phase, accentuated by the economic downturn Scarcity revival: The post-lockdown thirst for ‘in real life’ (IRL) experiences will combine with digital fatigue to place a new premium on scarce, IRL experiences in 2023 Community repurposed: The value of community will come to the fore in 2023, as entertainment increasingly becomes scene-led The rise of the moment: The immediacy of ‘now’ will find its fullest expression in social and music fusion in 2023 The forking of culture: Cultural intermediaries will provide access to subscenes for larger audiences The authenticity crisis: In an era of replication, authenticity will stand out The decoupling of global distribution: A changing geo-political landscape is turning back the clock on a vision for global markets in entertainment.

The early 2020s saw an influx of capital into the music business, with the promise of music rights being an asset class that was uncorrelated with the wider economy. The irony is that as music catalogue investments slowed (due to rising costs of capital), the first nine months of 2022 saw the music business deliver a performance that suggests the industry is indeed setting a path that is not being pulled down by recessionary conditions as much as many other industries.

As the world edges towards a recession, the music streaming market continues to stand strong. Despite indications of slowdown in some markets, the global music subscriber market remains buoyant. Growth, though, is uneven, with a number of leading streaming services outpacing the rest, especially the Chinese ones, which are now setting the global pace.

With streaming music now in its mature growth stage in most leading music markets, differentiation will be key to unlocking further growth pockets. While this will likely require innovation in both product and licensing, there are already clear signs that the streaming services are developing userbases with distinct and varied behaviours and characteristics.

The Covid pandemic created a unique catalyst for the music creator economy. More time on hands and more cash in pockets gave novices and veterans alike the opportunity to spend both more time and money making music. Though the pandemic was a peak, it also marked the start of a new era for the music creator economy across every one of its aspects, from revenue to creation to remuneration.