Global Recorded Music Retail Revenues to Reach $121.1 Billion by 2033

[London – 13 August, 2026] Global recorded music retail revenues will grow by 62.9%, from $74.3 billion in 2025 to $121.1 billion by 2033, including expanded rights, according to MIDiA Research’s 2026–2033 Global music forecasts | A diversifying marketreport.

Streaming will remain the key growth driver, but as the market matures, labels are diversifying their revenue sources. Many have set their sights on the fan economy, which includes physical music, non-DSP streaming (from social, fitness, and gaming), and expanded rights – labels’ share of revenue from branding, merchandise, live events, and other fandom-related activity. Combined, these segments will reach $18.5 billion by 2033, with expanded rights becoming the music industry’s second-fastest-growing revenue source.

The report forecasts that recorded music retail revenues will grow faster than trade revenues through 2033. While retail revenues will increase by 62.9%, trade revenues will grow by 57.2% to reach $62.7 billion. The difference in growth rate reflects streaming services gaining revenue share through bundle discounts, a changing content mix, and new revenue sources that are not shared with labels.

Streaming is entering its next phase. As the market matures, steadier price increases and format innovation, including new tiers and add-ons, will be key to continued streaming revenue gains and a return to subscription average revenue per user (ARPU) growth.

Growth in subscribers will increasingly come from Global South markets, including Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Rest of World. These markets already account for the majority of global music subscribers and will gain another 8.5 percentage points of subscriber market share by 2033.

The ad-supported market will show solid growth, outpacing subscriptions in CAGR terms, but premium will add more absolute revenue (in $ terms).

The report also forecasts that, despite the rise of the fan economy, physical music will mostly hold its size over the 2026–2033 period, rather than hitting the same heights of growth as seen in 2025. The segment will face pressure from new fandom models, including fan streaming tiers, which will compete for consumer spending, while markets where physical music remains popular for consumption will continue to shift towards streaming. Physical’s presence as a fan product will continue – particularly in the medium term. This is what has driven consistent growth in the US in recent years, and will be enough to tip physical over into small growth in the US across the forecast period (2026–2033 trade CAGR of 0.1%).

“As streaming comes of age, the music industry’s next growth phase will come from pulling new levers both within and beyond the subscription model. More consistent price increases, fewer free trials, and format innovation will return streaming ARPU to growth, while a growing fan economy is illuminating opportunities outside of traditional streaming. Expanded rights will be central to this shift, emerging as the industry’s second-fastest-growing revenue category behind streaming.” – Tatiana Cirisano, MIDiA Vice President of Music Strategy

“This year’s Global Music Forecast expands on our comprehensive modelling of average revenue per user (ARPU), delving deeper into how subscription pricing and tier mix will evolve in the years to 2033. An eventual tightening of free trial provision in the West, as well as regularised price rises and the advent of Supremium, will push ARPU higher, while dampening subscriber growth. DSPs will seek to push the limits of subscriber willingness to pay, with an anticipated 4 waves of price rises over the next 7 years.” – Perry Gresham, Head of Data at MIDiA Research

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