Music Forecasts
Where will music's next $47 billion come from?
Global recorded music retail revenues will grow by almost $47 billion between 2025 and 2033, but that growth will not be evenly distributed.
Global recorded music retail revenue growth will outpace trade, as music streaming services increase their revenue share, the fan economy is on course to reach $18.5 billion, and the Global South will continue to gain subscribers as its market share increases by 8.5 percentage points by 2033.
MIDiA Research's 2026–2033 global music forecasts report reveals precisely where the next wave of growth will come from, and who stands to capture it, giving rightsholders, investors, and streaming services the insight they need to get ahead of the market.
Global recorded music retail revenues will grow by almost $47 billion between 2025 and 2033, but that growth will not be evenly distributed.
Global recorded music retail revenue growth will outpace trade, as music streaming services increase their revenue share, the fan economy is on course to reach $18.5 billion, and the Global South will continue to gain subscribers as its market share increases by 8.5 percentage points by 2033.
MIDiA Research's 2026–2033 global music forecasts report reveals precisely where the next wave of growth will come from, and who stands to capture it, giving rightsholders, investors, and streaming services the insight they need to get ahead of the market.
What to expect
A preview of findings from MIDiA Research 2026–2033 global music forecasts
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Comparisons of global recorded music retail revenue and trade revenue growth for 2025 and 2033
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Outline of the factors supporting a return to subscription ARPU growth, including steadier price increases and format innovation
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Comparisons of the top five music subscription markets in 2025 versus 2033 by music subscribers and subscription revenue
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Growth figures across key music fan economy segments such as expanded rights, non-DSP streaming, and physical
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Frequently asked questions
What is MIDiA Research’s Global Music Forecasts report?
The 2026–2033 global music forecasts report is MIDiA Research's annual forecast of the global recorded music market, presenting the key figures, trends, and drivers of our music forecast model. It includes music subscribers and revenues across subscription, ad-supported audio, and ad-supported video streaming; physical, expanded rights, sync, performance, and more – built to help rightsholders, investors, and music companies make key decisions with the market's direction in view.
What does the Global Music Forecasts free preview include?
The Global Music Forecasts free preview includes key takeaways from the 2026 edition of MIDiA’s global music forecasts. As part of this free preview, we have provided charts and data covering retail and trade revenue growth, subscription average revenue per user (ARPU) growth, the rising impact of markets such as Brazil, China, and Japan, and the expansion of the fan economy.
What is the difference between recorded music retail revenues and trade revenues?
Retail revenues are the total revenues derived from consumer spending, including amounts paid to rightsholders as well as streaming services' share, ad-supported mark-ups, and music publishing revenues.
Trade revenues are the revenue paid to rightsholders, primarily labels, from the sale, streaming, or playing of master recordings. Retail is always the larger figure, but the growth gap between the two is what reveals who is gaining market share.
What is subscription ARPU in music streaming?
Subscription average revenue per user (ARPU) is the average revenue a streaming service earns per subscriber. MIDiA used its proprietary ARPU model in the 2026 edition of MIDiA’s global music forecasts to clearly forecast what will happen to music streaming subscription ARPU in 2026 through to 2033.
What is the music fan economy?
For this report, the music fan economy comprises physical music, expanded rights (labels' share of revenue from merchandise, brand, and live), and non-DSP streaming (music revenue derived from social, fitness, and gaming platforms).
Who is MIDiA Research?
MIDiA Research is the global authority in music, the creator economy, and cross-entertainment. Its data, forecasts, and analysis are relied upon by leading record labels, streaming services, and investors worldwide, and cited by outlets including Billboard, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and more.