MIDiA Research Predictions 2019

Alistair Taylor, Georgia Meyer, Mark Mulligan, Tim Mulligan and Zach Fuller

November 2018

Apple

Spotify

YouTube

In this report MIDiA Research analysts present their predictions for what will be the big trends in digital media and tech, across music, video, media, brands, marketing, games and sports in 2019. Companies and brands mentioned in this report: ABC, Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Amazon Prime Video, Apple, Apple Music, AT&T, BBC, BT, BT Sports, BT T...

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Spotify Q3 2018 Earnings
Metrics on Track But Investors Not Convinced

Mark Mulligan

November 2018

Subscriptions

Streaming

Streaming Music

Spotify’s Q3 2018 earnings once again showed continued solid progress across most of its performance metrics, with strong progress in many areas. However, weakening investor confidence across US tech stocks as a whole, coupled perhaps unrealistic investor expectations saw Spotify’s share price fall again.

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Headphones Market Shares
Apple Takes the Lead

Mark Mulligan

October 2018

Subscriptions

Streaming

Music Subscriptions

Headphones are the physical manifestation of streaming music. With the focus of listening shifted from home speakers to smartphones, headphones have become ubiquitous. But, whereas convenience was unchallenged in the early years, consumers have started to place more importance on quality.

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Video Streaming Subscription Services Market Metrics

Tim Mulligan

September 2018

Netflix

hulu

SVOD

This report includes the key findings of MIDiA’s Global Streaming Video Subscriber Market Share Model, in which we present the subscribers, revenues and market shares of video streaming services in 31 different countries. This report contains charts and analysis for 10 countries, including consumer survey data, while the complete excel model is p...

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Music Streaming Services Market Shares
H1 2018 Subscriber Share Update

Mark Mulligan

September 2018

Subscriptions

Streaming

Music Subscriptions

This report provides a global level mid-year update to MIDiA’s Music Subscriber Market Shares report, presenting H1 2018 figures. Companies and brands mentioned in this report: Amazon, Amazon Prime Music, Amazon Music Unlimited, Apple, Apple Music,...

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Pandora
Mapping Its Place in the US Streaming Market

Mark Mulligan

September 2018

Streaming

Streaming Music

Apple

Pandora is the granddaddy of streaming music, clocking 10 million active users before Spotify had even gone into public beta. It remains the most widely used audio streaming service in the US, but is no longer the golden child of the space. Despite having been long positioned as the long-term future of radio, investors have become increasingly conc...

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Streaming Services Market Shares 2.0

Mark Mulligan

August 2018

Subscriptions

Subscriptions

Streaming

This report includes the key findings of MIDiA’s Global Music Subscriber Market Share Model in which we present the subscribers, revenues and market shares of streaming services in more than 20 different countries. This report contains charts and analysis for 11 countries including consumer survey data, while the complete excel model is posted al...

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Paid News Digital Subscriptions
Bubble or Breakthrough?

Zach Fuller

August 2018

Subscriptions

Google

Facebook

Still feeling imbued with the often cited ‘Trump bump’, paid news media subscriptions continued their healthy growth trajectory throughout 2017 and into the first quarter of 2018. The market, excepting China and India, grew largely in symmetry with other digital behaviours, as premium news brands continued to make their case as a credible alter...

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State of the YouTube Music Economy 2.0
A Turning Point for All Parties

Mark Mulligan

August 2018

Streaming

Streaming Music

Spotify

This report is now into its second edition, updating the most comprehensive YouTube music dataset ever compiled in order to present all sides of the argument in an objective and impartial manner. The report provides an exhaustive view of the market for revenues, ad rates, stream rates, users, streams and subscribers.

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Tech Majors Market Shares Q2 2018
A Tale of Mixed Fortunes

Alistair Taylor, Karol Severin, Tim Mulligan and Zach Fuller

August 2018

Apple

Spotify

YouTube

Q2 2018 delivered contrasting milestones for the tech majors with Apple becoming the first company to have a trillion-dollar market capitalisation while Facebook simultaneously saw the single biggest one-day loss in market capitalisation in the history of US stock exchanges.

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Spotify Q2 2018 Earnings
More Needed from Emerging Markets and Ad Supported

Mark Mulligan

July 2018

Subscriptions

Streaming

Streaming Music

Spotify’s Q2 2018 earnings show continued solid progress across most of its performance metrics. However, investor scrutiny is intensifying, especially with the growing subscriber arms race in the US becoming — albeit incorrectly — perceived as a litmus test for global success.

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Emerging Music Markets
Streaming’s Third Wave

Mark Mulligan

July 2018

Streaming

Streaming Music

Music Subscriptions

With streaming growth set to slow in mature western markets by 2019, the next wave of fast growth will come from a mixture of mid-tier markets such as Mexico, Brazil, Japan and Germany. Beyond that, the streaming market will need to look towards emerging markets for growth.

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TV and Video Advertising
The Shift to Digital

Tim Mulligan

June 2018

Netflix

Facebook

emerging markets

The video advertising landscape is slowly moving away from both being broadcast TV based and being primarily driven by developed markets. The transition is picking up pace, with TV advertising declining by an average 3% per year from 2017 to 2023. In the meantime, over-the-top (OTT) ad revenue will increase by 10.

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UK Gamer Profile
Digital Entertainment Natives

Karol Severin

June 2018

Apple

Spotify

YouTube

Mobile and PC gamer penetration declined slightly in the UK between Q4 2016 and Q4 2017. Meanwhile, console ownership did not grow either, attesting that the market is constrained by the impending peak in the attention economy. It is becoming harder to compete for attention and engagement, precisely at the wrong time.

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The Outlook for Music Catalogue
Streaming Changes Everything

Mark Mulligan and Zach Fuller

June 2018

Spotify

Amazon

Napster

Catalogue was a real money spinner for the music industry throughout the sales era. First it underpinned the CD boom (convincing music fans to re-purchase old albums they already owned on prior formats). Then, through the emergence of the digital economy, it provided a stable respite from the volatility of declining overall revenues in the wake of ...

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Tech Majors Market Shares Q1 2018
Advertising and Subscriptions Power Growth

Alistair Taylor, Karol Severin, Tim Mulligan and Zach Fuller

June 2018

Subscriptions

Streaming

Apple

In Q1 2018 advertising revenue and services revenue drove strong growth for the tech majors – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, with Alphabet and Apple retaining their respective leads in each of those revenue segments but losing market share. Subscriptions were also a big part of the Q1 narrative; Amazon and Apple highlighted significant subscr...

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Tencent Tech Investment
Pursuing Aggressive Growth in the West

Alistair Taylor

May 2018

Streaming

Spotify

revenue

Tencent, currently the fifth most valuable public company in the world, saw income from ‘other gains’ increase in Q4 2017 by 800% on Q4 2016 figures, going $149.6 million to $1.2 billion. These other gains comprised one-off gains from IPOs, tax rebates and investment subsidies.

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Global Music Distribution
A Buyer’s Market

Mark Mulligan

May 2018

Labels

Spotify

Record labels

The internet was supposed to be the great leveller, enabling smaller artists and labels to reach global audiences in a way not previously possible. But, it turns out that getting music to these global fan bases is not quite so straightforward. Smaller labels simply do not have the resources to enable them to distribute music across all territories.

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Spotify Q1 2018 Earnings
Steady Course But Is It Enough?

Mark Mulligan

May 2018

Subscriptions

Streaming

Streaming Music

On the 2 May 2018 Spotify released its first quarterly earnings. The results fundamentally represent a continuation of the figures presented in Spotify’s F1 filing and show strong results across most performance metrics. Nonetheless, investors were not satisfied (apparently spooked by growing losses), resulting in a dip in Spotify’s stock price.

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Tencent Has Outgrown China
Now Comes The Next Phase of Growth

Alistair Taylor

April 2018

Streaming

Spotify

Amazon

Following the release of its fourth quarter earnings, Tencent is the first Chinese company to achieve a market capitalisation of over $500 billion, displacing Facebook as fifth most valuable global company. This growth has been highlighted by the 54% year-on-year (YoY) increase in revenue from $22.

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