Tatiana Cirisano

In this report, MIDiA Research analysts present their predictions for what will be the big trends in digital media and tech across music, video, games, marketing, audio and cultural trends in 2023 and beyond. Themes for 2023: Cost-of-living crunch: Entertainment spending will weaken, but some formats will fare better than others Perceived value will be king: As economic conditions worsen, consumers will seek out better value for money, not just ways to reduce spend The end of disruption: Following two decades of disruption, consumer tech is entering a ‘holding’ phase, accentuated by the economic downturn Scarcity revival: The post-lockdown thirst for ‘in real life’ (IRL) experiences will combine with digital fatigue to place a new premium on scarce, IRL experiences in 2023 Community repurposed: The value of community will come to the fore in 2023, as entertainment increasingly becomes scene-led The rise of the moment: The immediacy of ‘now’ will find its fullest expression in social and music fusion in 2023 The forking of culture: Cultural intermediaries will provide access to subscenes for larger audiences The authenticity crisis: In an era of replication, authenticity will stand out The decoupling of global distribution: A changing geo-political landscape is turning back the clock on a vision for global markets in entertainment.

The rise of attention inflation means that consumers are maximising their limited time by multitasking between various formats, spurring a rise in background consumption. This creates a “new” space for platforms to compete for consumers’ time. Among entertainment formats, audio is best placed to conquer background listening, but music streaming is more easily relegated to the background than podcasts.

Over roughly the past decade, each stage in the evolution of the attention economy accelerated the pace of fragmentation and oversaturation in music, unearthing new challenges for each micro-generation of artists. With all these generations now competing in the same playing field, artist strategy depends strongly on the era in which they rose to prominence.

DSPs have long been able to grow their subscriber bases despite all offering essentially the same experience. Yet the freemium model is reaching a saturation point, putting slow but steady pressure on DSPs to find new ways to grow subscribers and revenue.

The Covid pandemic created a unique catalyst for the music creator economy. More time on hands and more cash in pockets gave novices and veterans alike the opportunity to spend both more time and money making music. Though the pandemic was a peak, it also marked the start of a new era for the music creator economy across every one of its aspects, from revenue to creation to remuneration.

Streaming claimed radio’s younger, music-focused audiences while podcasts are now beginning to do the same for older, spoken-word audiences. However, it is not yet determined that the impact needs to be as disruptive for radio companies. With radio audience declines slowing, and even experiencing a modest rebound, a window of opportunity exists for radio companies to become masters of their own destinies.