Why predictions matter – and MIDiA’s take on 2026

It’s never been easy to predict the future. It seems to have become even harder in the last few years. As technologies evolve faster than ever, so too does the consumer behaviour surrounding them – the most salient example, of course, being AI. As entertainment continues to fragment, and ever more consumers move to more niche groups or even offline, understanding today’s consumers has become more complicated – which makes understanding who they will become tomorrow more complicated too. 

So why try to make predictions at all?

MIDiA is now in the ninth year of our annual Predictions report (and since 2022, an annual associated webinar), where analysts discuss what to expect across entertainment in the coming year. Our latest edition is coming up on January 15. As the task has become harder, we have only become more intent on doing it. Here’s why.

Because reactive strategies are no longer enough

Take the music business and TikTok. Social video apps irrevocably changed music in ways hardly anyone saw coming, forcing artists, labels, and marketers into defense mode. While most reacted the best they could amid the circumstances, their decisions had consequences. As a result of the pressure to sign and release more music, faster, artist development has often fallen through the cracks. As MIDiA’s upcoming independent label survey report reflects, many labels are only just now going back to a “less is more” approach. Meanwhile, the advent of social media as entertainment is set to reshape the business. Social video time is now eclipsing music streaming time, but only accounts for a slim minority of music industry revenue. 

Now with AI, the music industry is evolving to meet new technology faster than it ever has. Yet it is still struggling to keep pace, making it harder to proactively make decisions for the future. The task at hand is not just about predicting changes, but being ready for them.

Because optimisation isn’t enough, either

As streaming-era business models mature, most strategies across the entertainment industry – like raising prices or creating new tiers – are about optimising the current model. While these are critical near-term tactics, they will not be enough to lead entertainment into its next era of growth. Think about the music business in the late ‘90s. Back then, the CD was the dominant format, and post-boom growth was pursued via, you guessed it, price increases – only to come crashing down with the advent of Napster.

As MIDiA explores in our recent Future of labels and Future of music streaming reports, now is a crucial time for the music industry to actively build the next model – rather than reacting to disruption later. The same is true for all entertainment industries, from social to video to gaming. 

Because often, we get it right

We don’t just make predictions – we also grade our work each year and share the results publicly. We’re proud to have an average success rate of 81% across the last eight years, meaning that the vast majority of our predictions have either partially or fully come true. That’s no accident. Our takes are grounded in and stress-tested by rigorous data, from sources like our global consumer, creator, and executive surveys, and our industry-leading forecasts and market models. We know how critical it is for our clients and the wider industry to have data-backed, forward-looking analysis, so we never deal in guesswork. 

So what is MIDiA predicting for 2026? 

The return of rate limiters in music, AI-first movie studios, a microdrama gold rush, the re-localisation of social media, and much more. 

To hear it all, join us on January 15, 2026 at MIDiA’s 2026 Predictions Webinar, a free virtual event where our expert analysts will share data-driven predictions across music, the creator economy, and cross-entertainment. You can secure your spot at our events page here. Clients can also now access our full report, MIDiA Research 2026 predictions | Change is the constant, for a deeper look. We hope to see you there.