Emerging markets may be about to change the superstar business
The traditional recorded music business was all about selling units, which naturally meant that the most important markets were not the most populous but the wealthiest. Throughout the late 20th century this created a ‘global’ market that was dominated by North America, Europe and a few others. This is why (among other political reasons) Japan became the biggest Asian music market, rather than China.
Today’s music business is different. Streaming (particularly via ad-supported and bundles) can monetise large-scale audiences in lower per-capita GDP markets. Suddenly population size matters, and emerging markets become the world’s largest addressable music audience. The emerging markets opportunity has the western music and investment sectors salivating, but there is another layer many have missed: this shift is going to change how western record labels operate, not least by challenging the very notion of the global superstars which they trade in.
Anglo repertoire’s traditional dominance
Prosperity drives prosperity. Where music sales did well, music businesses did well. The music business did best in the US, as well as to a lesser degree in the other big English-speaking markets. These countries also benefited from English being the most exportable language for music. By the start of the 2000s (and excluding the US), of the top 10 music markets, domestic repertoire represented more than half of sales in only Japan and France. Anglo repertoire dominated the global music market and was extending its reach. Most countries across the globe were seeing their domestic repertoire shares falling year-on-year as we entered the new millennium. This of course meant less money feeding back into the local scenes, which meant more opportunity for international superstars to dominate. It was a cultural vicious circle. And then piracy happened.
A decade of piratical wilderness hit domestic repertoire hardest in many countries. For example, in Spain, the best way to keep track of domestic artists was ‘la manta’ chart. Literally ‘the blanket’, referring to the guys who would unfold a blanket on the street corner full of counterfeit CDs. So many local music scenes in lower-income emerging markets essentially remained largely organic and local for a decade. Then came along streaming, and suddenly artists can find their audiences in ways previously unimaginable. In geographically large countries like India and Brazil, touring the country was not a realistic option for most artists, so streaming enabled them to reach across their countries, and beyond, in an instant.
Streaming, cultural catalyst for local scenes
Streaming’s cultural impact on local scenes was actually first seen at scale in Europe, with German, Dutch and French rap scenes fast emerging that found massive domestic popularity but that rarely export. In the old model, the lack of ‘exportability’ meant no record deal which meant no local scene. Streaming changed that. Another early milestone was the rise of Latin American music, especially Reggaeton. Although some Latin American artists have broken through on the global stage, the most important impact has been the rise of both domestic and regional superstars. This is the future that we are entering.
To expect emerging markets to lap up Anglo repertoire just because they are now streaming not only smacks of cultural imperialism, it also misses the underlying fundamentals of how music scenes and consumption are changing. The steady rise of Anglo repertoire up to the early 2000s has been replaced by a rise in local and regional music. Globalism is becoming replaced by internationalism, homogeneity with diversity. All of which means that global Anglo superstars will feel the pinch. The superstar business was already facing the headwinds of fragmenting fandom, so emerging markets are an accelerant to a pre-existing trend, along with multipliers such as the growth in the number of artists, releases and personalised recommendations.
Build from within, not from without
None of this, however, necessarily means western labels cannot prosper in emerging markets. After all, they have the resources and expertise that decades of global success bring. They will need to shift their mindset from looking for export markets to territories where they can build new, domestic talent-centred business. A smattering of joint ventures from the western majors in Asia and Africa suggest the first steps are being made, but to succeed these strategies will have to be seen as the central plank of repertoire strategy for emerging markets, not a supporting strand.
However, the western majors should not assume they will be able to out-perform local and regional labels. In Japan and South Korea, the western majors are minority players, having been unable to unseat the dominant local ‘majors’. Interestingly, both countries are long-term exceptions to Anglo repertoire dominance. Both are high per-capita markets with large economies that can sustain thriving domestic music businesses. Also, Anglo repertoire does not import as well to these markets (despite endless western acts trying to ‘break’ Japan), with international repertoire stuck at around a quarter of sales in both markets at the turn of the millennium. Now in the third decade of the millennium, it is South Korea that is exporting music to the world, from ’Gangnam Style’ through to Black Pink and BTS. This shows that global superstars will still be a long term-feature of the music business – though fewer will be Anglo artists.
The outlook will thus be defined by:
· Fewer Anglo global superstars
· A rise in non-Anglo superstars
· The rise of regional superstars
· The rise of local scenes and domestic artists
It is an exciting time for music culture across the globe and we are most likely entering what will be the most culturally diverse era the global recorded music business has ever known.
If you are interested in emerging markets themes, then keep an eye out for a free report MIDiA will be publishing next week. Watch this space!