Predicting what happens next in video….
Photo: MIDiA Research
If 2023 was the year of consolidation in video, 2024 is poised to be one of experimentation and disruption. First up, the lag in content output as a result of this year’s writers and actors strikes left significant gaps in new content. The most recent US ratings data suggests that originals are already losing out to library content, accelerating a growing trend for strategically prioritising existing content over new originals. Combined with growing constraints on commissioning budgets, due to investor pressure, this will inevitably lead to greater experimentation with monetising existing IP beyond traditional licensing and merchandising deals. At the same time, the increasing attention threat posed by social video will continue to escalate the need for greater interactivity functionality and further erode the traditional lean-back linear TV viewing consumption model.
2024 will be a year of device disruption with Apple’s release of the Vision Pro in the US in Q1 2024, before being rolled out into other markets. While the hefty price tag and the novelty of the device will limit early adoption, the learnings from its initial launch will have a big impact on future rollouts and how streaming TV and film studios will respond. As MIDiA has highlighted in our recently published 2024 predictions report, the conditions required to transform Apple’s device launch into a mainstream entertainment platform are significant. Much will depend on the variables surrounding the products’ commercial rollout and the ability to engage studios and streaming TV services to ensure the product becomes a video success story.
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Lurking in the background is the ever-growing threat of content disruption posed by AI. Currently, we are at the inflection point where the guard rails that held some of the more disruptive elements of the technology have been removed following the recent board room machinations at OpenAI. Expect the pace of change to accelerate exponentially as the language learning models expand and real-world feedback loops increase the quality of the synthetic outputs. The WGA and SAG-AFTRA agreements ending the recent writer and actors’ strikes may have codified the inputs of AI in a studio setting, but outside of this the wider content landscape is posed for massive disruption. Ultimately, AI’s ability to proliferate content will be as disruptive to the TV industry for output as social video was to the consumer experience. The timeline for the full impact of this disruption will take place over the remainder of this decade. However, the other predicted impacts listed above will feature in our predictions webinar on January 11th, 2024. To find out more and to register for this free event please click on the link below: