Recession Impact Music Industry 2020 Growth Scenarios

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As part of MIDiA’s research stream focused on how        is impacting the entertainment industries, this report explores how the combination of lockdown measures and the coming recession will impact music industry revenues in 2020.

Key Insights

• Prior to        global music industry revenues totalled        billion in 2019, higher than the 2000 peak of        billion
• In 2000 recorded music (in retail terms) was        of all music industry revenues, with live just        By 2014 live had increased its share to        while recorded, (in retail terms), had fallen to       
       paused the long-term growth trend. MIDiA’s base-case growth scenario forecasts a        fall in music revenues in 2020 with our bear case being a fall of       
• In our three growth scenarios live music is the main factor pulling down revenues, operating at        of revenue capacity in 2020,        in 2021 and        in 2022
• In our base case scenario, music publishing will experience its first sector-wide decline in over a decade, falling by        with additional falls carrying through to 2021
• The MIDiA base case for recorded trade revenues is a        decline, with performance, sync and physical’s        decline cancelling out streaming’s growth
• Subscriptions are resilient but not immune to recessionary pressures with increased churn likely if unemployment levels rise and consumer spending power falls