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Global Music Forecasts 2015-2020 Declining Legacy Formats Cancel Out Streaming Growth

Report by Mark Mulligan
Cover image for Global Music Forecasts  2015-2020
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The 20,000 Foot View

In a few short years streaming has gone from being an interesting sideshow to the most important component of the recorded music market in terms of impact, innovation and disruption, though not in revenue terms.  Indeed streaming still only represents XXX of all recorded music revenue but its growth is directly impacting virtually every other aspect of the industry.  For the next five years the music industry will evolve at twin speeds, with the dynamic streaming sector sitting in stark contrast to the declining but still dominant legacy formats of the CD and the download.

Key Findings

  • 2014 was a big year for streaming but much of the revenue growth it brought to Nordic markets in 2013 disappeared
  • Global recorded music revenues were XXX billion in retail terms in 2014, down XXX on 2013 
  • Global digital music revenue stood at XXX billion in 2014
  • Global recorded music revenues will still be declining by 2020 in retail value revenues of XXX billion, XXX down on 2014
    Japan, XXX of 2014 global revenues, continues to drag down the global total due to plummeting domestic revenues
  • Digital will represent XXX of all recorded music revenues in 2020
  • Markets where Apple has been strong now have slower growing digital revenue than those where iTunes did not get a foothold
  • Latin America is one of the few regions that will experience music revenue growth between 2015 and 2020
  • Declining sales of CDs and downloads, coupled with competition from live, other digital media and free music will offset streaming growth
  • Streaming growth will peak in 2015 and will represent XXX of total music revenue in 2020 XXX of digital revenue)
  • Streaming slowed digital growth between 2012 and 2014 due to its impact on download sales
  • By 2020 there will be XXX million music subscribers globally, up from XXX million in 2014
  • In 2014 subscriptions accounted for XXX of streaming revenue with XXX billion and will grow to XXX billion in 2020
  • Free streaming services had XXX billion users in 2014 but the unique audience was XXX million
  • Blended monthly streaming ARPU (free and paid) was XXX spending on digital music declined by XXX in 2014 with the XXX increase in XXX digital revenues driving overall digital growth

Companies mentioned in this report: Apple, Amazon, Deezer, Digster Playlists, Google, Guvera, iHeart Radio, Mixcloud, MTV, MusicQubed, Pandora, PRS for Music, Psonar, QQ Music, Radionomy, Rdio, Rhapsody, Slacker, Smart, SoundCloud, Spinnr, Spotify, Tenecent, YouTube

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