Global Music Forecasts 2015-2020 Declining Legacy Formats Cancel Out Streaming Growth

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The 20,000 Foot View

In a few short years streaming has gone from being an interesting sideshow to the most important component of the recorded music market in terms of impact, innovation and disruption, though not in revenue terms.  Indeed streaming still only represents        of all recorded music revenue but its growth is directly impacting virtually every other aspect of the industry.  For the next five years the music industry will evolve at twin speeds, with the dynamic streaming sector sitting in stark contrast to the declining but still dominant legacy formats of the CD and the download.

• 2014 was a big year for streaming but much of the revenue growth it brought to Nordic markets in 2013 disappeared
• Global recorded music revenues were        billion in retail terms in 2014, down        on 2013 
• Global digital music revenue stood at        billion in 2014
• Global recorded music revenues will still be declining by 2020 in retail value revenues of        billion,        down on 2014Japan,        of 2014 global revenues, continues to drag down the global total due to plummeting domestic revenues
• Digital will represent        of all recorded music revenues in 2020
• Markets where Apple has been strong now have slower growing digital revenue than those where iTunes did not get a foothold
• Latin America is one of the few regions that will experience music revenue growth between 2015 and 2020
• Declining sales of CDs and downloads, coupled with competition from live, other digital media and free music will offset streaming growth
• Streaming growth will peak in 2015 and will represent        of total music revenue in 2020        of digital revenue)
• Streaming slowed digital growth between 2012 and 2014 due to its impact on download sales
• By 2020 there will be        million music subscribers globally, up from        million in 2014
• In 2014 subscriptions accounted for        of streaming revenue with        billion and will grow to        billion in 2020
• Free streaming services had        billion users in 2014 but the unique audience was        million
• Blended monthly streaming ARPU (free and paid) was       
• Consumer spending on digital music declined by        in 2014 with the        increase in        digital revenues driving overall digital growth

Companies mentioned in this report: Apple, Amazon, Deezer, Digster Playlists, Google, Guvera, iHeart Radio, Mixcloud, MTV, MusicQubed, Pandora, PRS for Music, Psonar, QQ Music, Radionomy, Rdio, Rhapsody, Slacker, Smart, SoundCloud, Spinnr, Spotify, Tenecent, YouTube