MIDiA Research global games forecasts 2025–2031 The market is mature, so double-digit growth is a fantasy

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20,000 foot view:
Recent years have been tough for the games market.
Like many industries, gaming overextended itself following the black swan event that was the COVID-19 pandemic. During those difficult times, everybody was at home, interest rates were low, and engagement with – and spending on – games skyrocketed. The growth-at-all costs mindset became dangerous. Many companies thought that double-digit growth would continue, greenlighting risky projects and strategies. The market is very different now, and many moves ultimately did not pan out. The games market has reached its maturity phase. Unless another black swan event happens, double-digit growth is a thing of the past. Meanwhile, inflation rates are high, money is considerably more expensive to borrow (for consumers and companies alike), there is a cost-of-living crisis, and publishers have been forced to lay off employees and adapt to this new normal.
Many publishers, seeing the successes of Fortnite, Roblox, League of Legends, and the like hitched their wagons to the live-service trend. But the live-service goldrush already had its winners. Dethroning them is nigh-on impossible. There are still gains to be made, as shown by the success of Helldivers 2 at the start of 2024 and Marvel Rivals at the end. But the attention economy is oversaturated. Helldivers 2 was an unexpected viral hit that saw more premium success than anything (retention numbers are low), and NetEase’s Marvel Rivals saw what looked like a sinking ship (Overwatch 2’s stagnation) and utilised a strong IP to acquire its players and others.
“Survive until ‘25” was a mantra often repeated in industry circles, with many hoping that the releases of the Switch 2 and GTA 6 in 2025 would revitalise the market and spark the growth enjoyed back in 2021 and 2022. Make no mistake: these will add more revenues for the market. However, Nintendo and Take-Two will be the big winners. The Switch 2 will offer an oasis for third parties, but GTA 6 will be an engagement and attention whirlpool, having a negative impact on other developers' games.
In short: we are now in 2025, and not much has really changed – or will change – since 2024 on a high level. It is time to say goodbye to “survive ‘til ‘25” and hello to “stick ‘til ’26” and beyond, but with tempered expectations for future growth in this mature market.
But it is not all doom and gloom.
Things will continue to be difficult in the games market, and these challenging market conditions mean developers are being forced to think smarter to succeed. Luckily, the industry is teeming with some of the smartest, most creative, and passionate minds in the world. But do not count on double-digit growth.
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Pages: 52
Disclaimer: Modelled numbers are calculated based on a combination of company financials, survey inputs, third party data, and MIDiA's understanding of the market. Forecast and future figures are produced using proprietary forecasting methodology, and are based on internal and external data, model assumptions and predictions, and MIDiA's understanding of market trends and dynamics.
MIDiA accepts no responsibility for any loss, financial or otherwise, resulting from your use of this report’s insights and the outputs of our model.