Reports Music

MIDiA Research 2024-2031 global music forecasts Rise of the Global South

Report by Mark Mulligan, Tatiana Cirisano and Perry Gresham
Cover image for MIDiA Research 2024-2031 global music forecasts
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20,000 foot view:

The 2024 edition of MIDiA’s global music forecast captures a market at a crossroads. With limited streaming user growth remaining in the West, revenue growth will be fuelled by price rises and ARPU increases, as well as expansion in emerging markets, albeit at lower ARPU. Bifurcation represents a shift in the established order, with growth in creative, fandom-led non-DSP streaming forking away from consumption-led DSP streaming. Meanwhile, the physical resurgence will continue but will have to reckon with new emerging avenues for fan engagement.

This report presents the key figures, trends, and drivers of MIDiA’s music forecast model. The figures presented in this report are both retail and label trade values and are in billions of US dollars – unless otherwise stated. An Excel file posted alongside this report provides complete country-level data, including DSP market shares and a detailed methodology statement.

Key data and insights included in this report:

  • Exploration of key music market drivers and inhibitors across subscriptions, ad-supported, physical, and other

  • Recorded music market size from 2008 to 2031, broken out by revenue type

  • Revenue forecasts to 2031 for subscriptions, ad-supported audio, ad-supported video, downloads, physical, sync, and performance

  • Market share by revenue type, forecast to 2031

  • User forecasts to 2031 for subscribers, ad-supported audio users, ad-supported video users, and average revenues per user (ARPU) forecasts for both subscription APRU and ad-supported ARPU

  • Non-DSP streaming revenue forecasts to 2031 with splits into masters, publishing, and platform

  • Audio streams forecasted to 2031

  • Expanded rights forecasted to 2031

  • Region and country level breakdowns of revenue, users, ARPU, streams, across five regions and 35 countries, all forecasted to 2031

  • Subscriber and ad-user penetration rates, by country and region, forecasted to 2031

  • Alternative model scenarios: bear, bull, and bifurcation, each capturing different possible future market trajectories

  • Historical subscribers by streaming service, and DSP market shares, by country

  • Methodology statement and methodology slides

Table of contents:

Number of words: 10,375

Number of pages: 75

Number of infographics: 48