Global Music Forecasts 2015-2020: Declining Legacy Formats Cancel Out Streaming Growth

The 20,000 Foot View

In a few short years streaming has gone from being an interesting sideshow to the most important component of the recorded music market in terms of impact, innovation and disruption, though not in revenue terms. Indeed streaming still only represents X% of all recorded music revenue but its growth is directly impacting virtually every other aspect of the industry. For the next five years the music industry will evolve at twin speeds, with the dynamic streaming sector sitting in stark contrast to the declining but still dominant legacy formats of the CD and the download.

Key Findings (Data Points Are Removed From This Preview Summary)

  • 2014 was a big year for streaming but much of the revenue growth it brought to Nordic markets in 2013 disappeared
  • Global recorded music revenues were $X billion in retail terms in 2014, down X% on 2013
  • Global digital music revenue stood at $X billion in 2014
  • Global recorded music revenues will still be declining by 2020 in retail value revenues of $20.1 billion, X% down on 2014
  • Japan, X% of 2014 global revenues, continues to drag down the global total due to plummeting domestic revenues
  • Digital will represent X% of all recorded music revenues in 2020
  • Markets where Apple has been strong now have slower growing digital revenue than those where iTunes did not get a foothold
  • Latin America is one of the few regions that will experience music revenue growth between 2015 and 2020
  • Declining sales of CDs and downloads, coupled with competition from live, other digital media and free music will offset streaming growth
  • Streaming growth will peak in 2015 and will represent X% of total music revenue in 2020 (X% of digital revenue)
  • Streaming slowed digital growth between 2012 and 2014 due to its impact on download sales
  • By 2020 there will be X million music subscribers globally, up from X million in 2014
  • In 2014 subscriptions accounted for X% of streaming revenue with $X billion and will grow to $Xbillion in 2020
  • Free streaming services had X billion users in 2014 but the unique audience was X million
  • Blended monthly streaming ARPU (free and paid) was $X
  • Consumer spending on digital music declined by X% in 2014 with the X% increase in B2B digital revenues driving overall digital growth

Companies mentioned in this report: Apple, Amazon, Deezer, Digster Playlists, Google, Guvera, iHeart Radio, Mixcloud, MTV, MusicQubed, Pandora, PRS for Music, Psonar, QQ Music, Radionomy, Rdio, Rhapsody, Slacker, Smart, SoundCloud, Spinnr, Spotify, Tenecent, YouTube

NOTE: This report includes the MIDiA Research Global Music Forecasts, 2015-2020.